unchartedlegacyofthievescollectionpccrash|债市大幅调整：30年期国债收益率反弹超16基点，短债基金或受益

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The bond market has adjusted sharply recently.UnchartedlegacyofthievescollectionpccrashThe net value of more than 70% of the debt base fell, but industry insiders believe that the "debt bull" market will continue, and short-term debt funds are expected to benefit from fluctuations. The central bank is concerned about long-term yields and no trend changes in economic fundamentals and monetary policy.

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[China's bond market has undergone a brief adjustment, and industry insiders expect the "bond bull" market to continue.] affected by factors such as the central bank's focus on long-term yields, China's bond market has adjusted sharply recently. As of April 29, 30-year Treasury yields rebounded by more than 16 basis points, the biggest pullback of the year, according to the China Bond Information Network. However, people in the industry generally believe that as the economic fundamentals and monetary policy have not yet undergone trend changes, the future "bond bull" market will continue, and short-term debt funds are expected to benefit from fluctuations. The market has expected a correction in the bond market. At the end of February, the yield on the 30-year Treasury note fell below 2Unchartedlegacyofthievescollectionpccrash.5%, which is upside down with the 1-year MLF interest rate, attracting market attention. But with the adjustment of the bond market, the upside-down phenomenon has disappeared. According to Wind data, the market-wide active debt base has fallen by an average of 2% since April 23.Unchartedlegacyofthievescollectionpccrash.56 BP, more than 70% of debt-based products fell. Industry insiders believe that the voice of the central bank is one of the main reasons for the adjustment of the bond market. The head of the relevant department of the central bank said that the yield on long-term treasury bonds will run within a reasonable range that matches the expectation of long-term economic growth. In addition, market interest rates are already lower than policy rates, and the central bank is concerned about the risk of financial institutions mismatching long-term interest rates. Despite the adjustment in the bond market, industry insiders remain optimistic about the sustainability of the "bond bull" market. According to the analysis of the Hongde Fund, the economic fundamentals have not deteriorated, and the continued rise in the property market and the stock market has increased the market risk appetite, putting pressure on the bond market. But the central bank seems to focus more on the long term, and institutions are under pressure to allocate. In the context of abundant liquidity in the whole society, the overall environment of the bond market is not pessimistic. Looking ahead, the Hongde Fund believes that it is necessary to pay attention to the statement of the Politburo meeting of the Central Committee and the landing of the proactive fiscal policy, as well as the marginal changes in the supply of local bonds and special treasury bonds. At the same time, the persistence of the stock market rally will also affect the bond market. The bond market may be volatile, but it is still in a range, and it is too early for the bull market to reverse sharply. Huang Leting of Pengyang Fund said that this round of market adjustment is similar to the impact of events, while economic fundamentals and monetary policy orientation have not yet changed. After the adjustment, the market reappears differences, the transaction structure is optimized, and the bond market will probably continue to play a game around the change of capital interest rate, the rhythm of government debt supply and the expectation of incremental policy. Debt managers believe that the market yield has experienced large fluctuations in the short term, there may be a certain degree of redemption pressure. But overall, if there is no significant shift in central bank and fiscal attitudes, there will be little pressure on the bond market to adjust. The mismatch of trading structure has changed obviously at the end of 2022, and the current crowded trading structure is expected to stabilize after being corrected. From the performance of fund products, in 2023, the average return of medium-and long-term pure debt funds was 3.74%, while since the beginning of this year, the average return of this type of funds has reached 1.54%, with an annualized return of 4.72%. This reflects the market's preference for bond assets. Short-term debt funds have relatively low risk and relatively stable returns, and are expected to achieve good performance in the current market environment. The specific return in the future needs to be comprehensively considered according to the macroeconomic environment, market trend, fund manager's investment strategy and other factors. The fund manager also said that if there is a significant increase in economic policy at the policy level, there may be more pressure on the bond market to adjust. Talking about how to improve the performance-to-price ratio of bond funds, Hongde Fund said that since the second quarter, the yield has hit a new low.UnchartedlegacyofthievescollectionpccrashThey gradually reduced the duration and leverage of the pure debt portfolio and waited for a better time to intervene. At the same time, there are structural opportunities in the convertible bond market, actively explore the advantages that convertible bonds can attack and retreat, increase the tilt of asset allocation, and strive to effectively smooth portfolio fluctuations and create satisfactory returns for investors. With the adjustment of the market, the margin of short-end safety is higher. After all, under the background that the economy still needs to continue to improve, it is too early for monetary policy trend to tighten, and the short-term certainty after adjustment is stronger. Short-term debt funds are expected to benefit from fluctuations. The Hongde Fund said.