pokerstarsplaymoney| Zhuochuang Information: Looking at the short-term resource flow in Shandong from the perspective of regional asphalt price differences

Zhang Yanfei, an analyst at Zhuochuang Information

[introduction] after the obvious fluctuation of asphalt price in Shandong in AprilPokerstarsplaymoneyThe price difference of asphalt between Shandong and other regions has changed obviously, at the same time, the cross-regional circulation of Shandong asphalt will also change gradually.

From January to April 2024, the average price of asphalt in Shandong showed a fluctuating upward trend as a whole, in which the price increase in Shandong was relatively slow in the first quarter, and the price difference between the highest price and the lowest price was only 140 yuan / ton, but it was driven by successive increases in upstream refineries in April. Shandong asphalt prices showed a large upward trend, with a maximum increase of 200 yuan / ton in the month. At the same time, with the rapid rise of asphalt prices in Shandong, the price gap between Shandong and other regions has also changed obviously, and the flow of asphalt resources in Shandong is gradually changing.

Since March, the price difference between East China and Shandong asphalt has narrowed to less than 100 yuan / ton in most of the time, which is basically unable to cover the motor freight between the two places, while the price difference between the two places in the same period last year is 300-400 yuan / ton, which can basically cover the freight between the two places. The rise of Shandong prices and the narrowing of regional price differences are not conducive to the outflow of asphalt resources from Shandong refineries to East China.

From February to March, the price difference between Sichuan and Chongqing-Shandong asphalt gradually narrowed from 600 yuan / ton to about 400 yuan / ton, but the asphalt freight from Shandong to Sichuan-Chongqing fluctuated at 220-400 yuan / ton from February to March, and the price difference between the two places can basically cover the freight. Therefore, Shandong asphalt resources continue to be exported to Sichuan and Chongqing from February to March.

However, after entering April, the cumulative price of asphalt in Shandong has increased by about 200 yuan / ton, while the upward driving force in Sichuan and Chongqing is insufficient, especially in Chongqing, which leads to the inflow of Shandong resources into Sichuan and Chongqing no longer has the price advantage. On the contrary, low-cost shipping resources in Chongqing can replace Shandong resources to flow into Sichuan province. Therefore, the amount of asphalt resources flowing into Sichuan and Chongqing in Shandong has decreased significantly since April.

In April, asphalt prices in Shandong and North China basically rose synchronously, and the price difference between the two places was maintained at 50-80 yuan / ton, with little fluctuation. But recently, after the rapid price correction in Shandong, the price difference between the two places is 100-110 yuan / ton. the expansion of the price difference is conducive to the export of Shandong asphalt resources to North China. In addition, some asphalt resources in Shandong can also be sent directly to the northeast.

Generally speaking, after the change of asphalt price difference between Shandong and other regions, the southward advantage of Shandong asphalt resources has been further reduced, and the arbitrage window from Shandong to East China and from Shandong to Sichuan and Chongqing is basically closed.PokerstarsplaymoneyWhile the advantage of Shandong resources northward to North China and Northeast China is gradually expanding, in the short term, in addition to local consumption, Shandong asphalt resources will also continue to flow into North and Northeast China. If Shandong prices fall further, it may be possible to open the arbitrage window from Shandong to Sichuan and Chongqing.