crashbandicootnsanetrilogydownloadforpc| A shares have changed, this is the correct posture for bottom-hunting!

Invest in Little Red Book-issue 192

When we are dusty and scarred, but we still have to believe

After nearly four years of adjustment, the overall valuations of A shares and Hong Kong stocks are located in the global depression. With the influx of external capital, the stock market picks up, and the discussion of bottoming out is also rising. So what is the correct posture for bottoming?

Recently, the stock market rebounded, and the Shanghai Composite Index closed again at 3100 points. However, the polarization is more serious, with about 30 per cent of stocks falling more than 20 per cent against the backdrop of the Shanghai Composite Index rising nearly 6 per cent this year, and more than 70 per cent of ST stocks in the past month.

In the two rounds of sharp rises before 2015, the general rise and fall was the rule. In the counter-trend investments in the past, the so-called junk stocks such as low stock prices, small plates, good concepts and good flexibility rose even more, and stocks with really good fundamentals often lagged far behind the average. investors can enjoy a wave of increase as long as they stubbornly hold on to the stocks of companies whose share prices fall near one or two yuan or have the smallest market capitalization.

However, with the implementation of the new "National Nine articles", the era of "small speculation and new speculation" may be gone forever. Due to the power of rules such as face value delisting, counterfeiting delisting, and major delisting, the trend of "should withdraw as much as possible" has been formed. so far this year, more than 20 companies have been locked in delisting under the high pressure of "delisting as much as possible."

Although countertrend investment is one of the keys to successful investment, the environment of A shares has changed. Choosing the wrong stocks not only cannot enjoy the rise of the market, but also bears the risk of losing principal. The US stock market has in fact been a bull market for a small number of stocks, and investors who speculate regardless of fundamentals can hardly live long. Investors should bear in mind that Buffett once said, "there are two things that investors are most likely to make mistakes: one is to buy wrong."CrashbandicootnsanetrilogydownloadforpcSecond, buy or sell stocks at the wrong time. " From the current point of view, investors should be on guard against picking the wrong stocks.

Traditional counter-trend investment can be as easy as rolling logs.

Traditional contrarian investment is simple and effective. It did as Fred Schweder Jr., who lived through the Great Depression of 1930, said:

When everyone scrambles to buy stocks during the stock market boom, you take out all the stocks and sell them, using the proceeds to buy conservative bonds. Of course, the stock you sell will go up. Don't worry about it-just wait for the depression that will come sooner or later.

When depression (or panic) becomes a national disaster, you sell all your bonds and buy stocks back. Of course, stocks are sure to fall. Also ignore it and wait for the next boom. Keep repeating this behavior for the rest of your life, and you can experience the joys of being rich before you die.

"if you look back at financial history, you will see that there is not a generation that has not benefited from this advice. However, to my sadness, I have never known anyone who did so. It may seem as easy as rolling logs, but this is not the case. Of course, the main difficulty is psychological, which requires buying bonds when bonds are not very popular and buying stocks when stocks fall out of favor. " Said Fred Schwade Jr.

The same was true of A-shares. A smart old investor once said that when XX shares fall to around 1 yuan, buy at the bottom, and persist until the end of the bull market, earning 3 to 4 times the income, then sell the rest. This stock is the weather vane of bull-bear conversion, and it works all the time.

In June 2014, the share price of XX shares fell to 1.Crashbandicootnsanetrilogydownloadforpc.1 yuan, and the share price rose to 5 in June 2015.Crashbandicootnsanetrilogydownloadforpc.25 yuan. In June 2006, the stock fell to 1.5 yuan, rising as high as 10.75 yuan in December 2007, as low as 1.1 yuan in 1998 and as high as 3.57 yuan in June 2000.

Game thinking once dominated A-shares, the so-called bottom reading is the process of drumming and spreading flowers. What most investors care about is whether they can successfully pass on their chips to the next investor and get the maximum profit before the end of the music. So they prefer to choose junk stocks with small plates, small market capitalization, and makers or companies that are willing to sell junk stocks stimulated by good news, but after a bull market, the floor is often covered with chicken feathers, and investors standing guard at a high level suffer heavy losses.

The real investment against the trend must be guaranteed by the margin of safety.

Many ordinary investors will use imaginary bulls and bears as the basis for buying and selling stocks. But Buffett, the god of stock, is very different. he never makes decisions based on the economic cycle, the interest rate cycle or the bull-bear cycle of the stock market, nor does he think he has the ability to predict these factors. His investment focuses on living enterprises, and Buffett's decision-making basis is to buy great enterprises at a reasonable price.

Buffett completed it in September 2008.CrashbandicootnsanetrilogydownloadforpcAn investment in Goldman Sachs. The CNBC reporter asked him if this was the right time to shoot. Buffett replied, "it's hard for me to tell you whether the sale is just right at this time. I won't use the concept of time to measure a deal." I will only use the price to measure whether a transaction is appropriate or not.

Buffett went on to say that even if you see now in five or 10 years' time, it must be a great buying time, but it doesn't mean that the buying time next week or month will not be better than it is now. He does not know how the stock market will develop in the next month or the next six months, but he believes that after a period of recovery, the US economy will grow better in the future, and investors who hold stocks will also get better.

The reason why value investors act in the bear market is not based on bull and bear judgment, but from the margin of safety and intrinsic value. Even if some stocks have fallen by more than 90% in a bear market, it doesn't mean they are worth investing. Recently, the major shareholders of about 20 companies have announced plans to reduce their holdings, and the low index does not mean that all stocks are undervalued.

Investors in mature capital markets seldom dare to speculate on poor performance stocks, and A shares have also entered such an ecology. On April 30, the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges formally issued the revised Stock listing rules, which mentioned that four types of compulsory delisting standards, namely, major violations, norms, finance, and transactions, should be strictly enforced, so as to more accurately realize "should withdraw as much as possible" and promote the formation of an orderly and timely pattern of advance and retreat. Since the beginning of this year, more than 20 listed companies have been locked in listing.

The right posture to invest against the trend is to look for stocks with good value for money. As Buffett said, investors are justifiably cautious about less competitive companies, but for highly competitive companies, there is no need to worry about their long-term prospects. The profits of these companies will also be mixed, but most will set new profit records in the next five, 10 or 20 years.

In fact, real investment must be protected by a real margin of safety, which can be proved by data, persuasive inferences and some practical experience. Investment should not be based on optimism, but on the results of calculations. When you make a mistake, the market is fair and it will not take into account your emotions.

There is a long-standing story for A-share investors to learn from: an investor accustomed to A-share ecology saw that the share price of a Hong Kong stock had fallen by 90%, and when the share price was around HK $1, he thought that the share price would fall to HK $1. He rushed in with all his wealth. Unexpectedly, the stock fell 90% again into a fairy stock, and the fairy stock fell 90% after 10 and 1 shares.

The current A-shares are replicating the ecology of the mature capital market, so we must not take it for granted that some stocks are indestructible, and that price and intrinsic value are the really important factors in choosing stocks.