addamsfamilypinballmachine| Special topic for the delivery week: Geophysical impact, maritime freight rates continue to rise, strong demand, and strong air freight rates

Travel chain: the freight rate is lower than the previous monthAddamsfamilypinballmachineAir passenger traffic remains high: 1) Air traffic: on May 11, the seven-day moving average passenger volume returned to 115% in the same period in 2019.AddamsfamilypinballmachineInternational passenger traffic returns to 83% in the same period in 2019) passenger rate & ticket price: domestic occupancy rate is 81%Addamsfamilypinballmachine.5%, the seven-day moving average compared with the same period in 2019 + 1.9pct, month-on-week + 0.8pct; the seven-day moving average international occupancy rate is 72.3%, compared with the same period in 2019-3.4pct, unchanged from the previous week; domestic oil ticket price is 613 yuan, seven-day mobile compared with the same period in 2019 + 2.6%, month-on-week-33.9% 3) the volume and price of core routes: Beijing-Shanghai / Shanghai-Shenzhen / Shanghai-Guangzhou / Beijing-Shenzhen / Beijing-Guangzhou / Beijing-Shenzhen / Beijing-Guangzhou, ① passenger volume, restored to the same period in 2019, 104%, 12.7% and 123%; ② fares, year-on-year change-23%, 24%, 36%, 36, 40, 36, respectively. Dividend assets: the transportation industry has the typical characteristics of high dividend. Landing investment: 1) buy low-wave robust + dividend determination, optimize high-speed leaders (China Merchants Highway, Guangdong Expressway, etc.) + Daqin Railway; 2) Buy bottom reversal elasticity + undervalued, optimize the bulk supply chain (Xiamen Xiangyu, Xiamen International Trade); 3) buy independent prosperity + growth determination, optimize freight forwarders (China Foreign Transportation, China Trade Logistics). Shipping: once again geopolitical conflict, sea freight continues to rise. Oil prices continue to rise: Clarkson's average VLCC-TCE rose 14.4% to $50k per day this week. Private trading is still active, but oil supply and demand is good, the Atlantic market continues to be strong and transmitted to the Middle East, and large shipping rates continue to rise. Shipowners are still optimistic about freight rates, but need to pay attention to the pallet rhythm of the charterers in early June. Consignment continues to soar: the SCFI Composite Index rose 18.8% to 2 this weekAddamsfamilypinballmachine306 o'clock. With strong overseas demand and renewed Israeli-Palestinian conflict, container freight rates have risen generally. Replenishment in Europe and the United States led to higher-than-expected demand, and the market said that shipping companies plan to continue to raise freight rates on routes such as the US route on the 5th and 15th. Bulk carriers continued to rise: BDI rose 20.0% to 2129 points this week. Iron ore pallets in Western Australia increased and demand in the Pacific continued to improve; iron ore demand in West Africa remained active and ships continued to rise. The Pacific tonnage list is expected to increase gradually by the end of May, with freight rates or pressure. Logistics: air freight prices are strong, with a high increase in express delivery during the May Day period. 1) Express delivery volume: April 29-May 5 (2024W18), the cumulative collection volume of postal express delivery is about 2.91 billion pieces, an increase of 23.5% over the same period last year. From May 1 to May 5, 2024, the average daily revenue of express delivery across the country increased by 32.7% over the same period last year, with a high increase in business volume during the May Day period. 2) Highway freight index: as of May 10, the freight traffic index was the same as the same period last year. 3) Air cargo prices: as of May 6, 2024, the Hong Kong / Pudong air cargo price index was + 0.6% plus 1.6% compared with last week, and 29.9% respectively compared with the same period last year. From early May to mid-May, the transport capacity of European and American routes is relatively stable, European FRA route automobile industry and high-tech industry demand is strong, American e-commerce demand is strong, supporting strong freight rates. 4) Ganqi Maodu Mongolia coal transport volume-short-disk freight rate: from April 29 to May 5, the average daily traffic volume at the port is 912 vehicles per day, an increase of 25 vehicles per day compared with the previous month; the average short-market price is 53 yuan / ton, an increase of 3 yuan / ton. Air cargo prices continue to strengthen, once again verify the high prosperity of cross-border e-commerce, optimistic about China Eastern Logistics, China Foreign Transportation (DHL) and so on. At the same time, the upstream link pays attention to the cross-border transport opportunities brought by the overseas layout of Chinese-funded mining enterprises, and is optimistic about Jiayu International. In 2024, Zhongtong emphasizes high-quality development, superimposed regulatory policies restrict the intensity of price competition, and the price second-order inflection points can be expected, indicating investment opportunities at the bottom of the express plate, giving priority to industry leaders with high success rates, Zhongtong and Yuantong, and paying attention to second-line express leading investment opportunities. Risk tips 1, macroeconomic fluctuations; 2, oil prices and labor costs have risen sharply; 3, European sanctions on Russian oil products have been lifted. [disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.

[disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.