wsopfreechipsfacebook| Everbright Futures: May 17 Energy and Chemical Daily

Crude oilWsopfreechipsfacebook:

On Thursday, SC2406, the main contract for crude oil, closed up 0%.Wsopfreechipsfacebook.31%, at 614.7 yuan per barrel; WTI June contract closed up 0.60%, or 0.76%, to 79.23 US dollars per barrel; Brent July crude oil contract closed up 52 US dollars per barrel, or 0.63%, to 83.27 US dollars per barrel. EIA expects the oil market to reach a balance between supply and demand in 2024. Although the current production reduction of OPEC is the biggest constraint on global supply this year, production in non-OPEC countries, led by the United States, Canada, Brazil and Guyana, has increased by 1.8 million barrels per day in 2024, and the spare capacity of OPEC is estimated to be about 4 million barrels per day. Short-term oil prices fluctuate weakly under the suppression of macro and geographical factors, and there is still no obvious marginal support on the supply and demand side. the downgrade of global crude oil demand growth by the three major institutions reflects that the expectations of the major institutions for the crude oil market have begun to turn. Watching whether the meeting of OPEC+ on June 1st will extend the current production reduction plan to the second half of this year, the market now expects that OPEC may maintain the production reduction measures from the end of last year to the present against the background of oil price correction.

Fuel oil:

On Thursday, FU2409, the main contract for fuel oil in the previous issue, closed up 0.51% at 3363 yuan / ton, while LU2408, the main contract for low-sulfur fuel oil, closed down 0.12% at 4250 yuan / ton. Sales of marine fuel in Singapore were 4.2352 million tons in April 2024, down 4.72 per cent from the previous month and 0.55 per cent from a year earlier, according to the Singapore Maritime and Port Authority. From January to April 2024, Singapore's total sales of marine fuel was 18.0957 million tons, an increase of 8.92 per cent over the same period last year. Sales of LSFO in April were 2.2524 million tons, down 6.92% from a month earlier, down 0.31% from a month earlier to 1.6005 million tons. In May, the downstream demand for low-sulphur tanker combustion in Singapore remained flat, but the flow of low-sulphur arbitrage goods into Singapore from the Western Hemisphere decreased in mid-to-late May, which may provide some support for market fundamentals, while demand for high-sulphur tanker combustion may continue to remain stable. Sales of marine fuel in Singapore are expected to remain largely stable in May. Recent oil price fluctuations, it is expected that the short-term FU and LU absolute prices will follow the oil price volatility is weak, high-sulfur performance may be stronger than low-sulfur, high-low sulfur price difference will maintain a low level.

Asphalt:

On Thursday, BU2409, the main contract for asphalt, closed down 0.05% at 3656 yuan / ton. According to Longzhong information statistics, as of May 13, the old sample shipments of 54 domestic asphalt manufacturers totaled 333000 tons, an increase of 19% compared with the previous month, and new sample shipments totaled 371000 tons, an increase of 17.1% compared with the previous month. This week, the total domestic asphalt supply was 499000 tons, down 13.2% from the same period last year, and the actual consumption downstream was 472000 tons, down 2.9% from the same period last year. Post-holiday asphalt demand is weak, although the supply increment is limited, but the inventory pressure is greater. Due to the recent oil price fluctuations, it is expected that the short-term BU absolute price will be weaker with the oil price volatility.

Rubber:

On Thursday, RU2409, the main force of Shanghai glue, rose 280yuan / ton to 14710 yuan / ton, NR rose 200yuan / ton to 12220 yuan / ton, and butadiene rubber BR rose 155yuan / ton to 13480 yuan / ton. Yesterday, Shanghai whole latex 14000 (+ 14000), whole milk-RU2409 price difference-570,RMB mixed 13700 (+ 250RMB), mixed-RU2409 price spread-870,13700 (+ 60), BR9000 Qilu spot 13350 (+ 50), main BR9000-BR-10 (- 70). The start-up of tire factories has a strong momentum of recovery. this week, the start-up load of all-steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 68.04%, 18.85 percentage points higher than last week and 3.71 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The starting load of semi-steel tires in domestic tire enterprises this week was 80.57%, 4.48 percentage points higher than last week and 9.23 percentage points higher than the same period last year. Under the double increase of supply and demand, Tianjiao continues to go to the warehouse, the extent of removing the stock of dark rubber is greater than that of light rubber, and the support for No. 20 rubber is stronger than that of natural rubber. Butadiene rubber start-up fell, output shrank, downstream semi-steel tire support stabilized, butadiene rubber price shock was strong.

Polyester:

TA409 closed yesterday at 5834 yuan / ton, up 0.73%; the spot offer rose 09 yuan / ton to about 7 yuan / ton. EG2409 closed yesterday at 4452 yuan / ton, down 0.04%, the basis increased by 5 yuan / ton to-41 yuan / ton, spot quotation 4420 yuan / ton. The main contract of PX futures closed at 8394 yuan / ton, up 0.6%. The spot negotiation price is US $1014 / ton, the RMB price is 8437 yuan / ton, and the base difference is expanded from 18 yuan / ton to 75 yuan / ton. A 2.2 million-ton PTA unit in East China has been restarted and is now in normal operation. A 3.6 million-ton PTA unit in East China has been stopped and is expected to restart in early June. The restart of a 400000 t / a MEG plant in Fujian has been moderately delayed. A 700000-ton / year MEG device in the United States is still in the process of stopping, and the restart time has yet to be determined. It should be temporarily stopped last week. A 200000-ton / year MEG plant in Taiwan is scheduled to stop in June due to raw material supply problems, and the parking time is expected to be around a month. The production and marketing of polyester in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is OK, and the average production and marketing is estimated to be about 70%. Cost end shock, weak demand drag, polyester raw material prices low shock, but the centralized maintenance of TA will improve the supply and demand structure of TA, the extent of removal is still considerable. Ethylene glycol point of view, ethylene glycol overall start-up to maintain negative, downstream polyester start-up load down, but ethylene glycol port inventory is still going to storage, it is expected that short-term ethylene glycol shock.

Methanol:

On Thursday, spot prices in Taicang were 2865 yuan per ton, Inner Mongolia North Line prices were 2335 yuan per ton, CFR China prices were between US $305 and US $310 per ton, and CFR Southeast Asian prices were between US $360 and US $365 per ton. Downstream, the price of formaldehyde in Shandong is 1215 yuan / ton, the price of acetic acid in Jiangsu is 3230-3330 yuan / ton, and the price of MTBE in Shandong is 6950 yuan / ton. On the supply side, there are still more maintenance devices than restart devices, and the domestic supply is still expected to be reduced. From the perspective of the internal and external price difference, the price of China's arrival to Hong Kong is low, it is expected that the volume of arrival will be reduced, and the overall supply will tend to tighten. On the demand side, the current MTO profit is not good, and the expectation of lower construction is still high. Although some of the traditional downstream profits are better, the overall demand is limited, and it is expected that the comprehensive demand is still weaker than the previous month. In terms of inventory, although supply-side expectations are weak, short-term downstream demand expectations are not strong, so mainland inventories may still have cumulative pressure, while the overall inventory pressure on the port side is not great, and the total inventory has a small cumulative expectation. Generally speaking, the overall inventory level of methanol is low at present, and although the demand is expected to weaken periodically, it is still better than last year, so methanol does not have the conditions to fall sharply in the long run, so it is treated with strong shock.

Polypropylene:

On Thursday, the mainstream of wire drawing in East China was 7580 yuan / ton. In terms of profit, the gross profit of oil-based PP is-1016.72 yuan / ton; the gross profit of coal-based PP production is-394.7 yuan / ton; the gross profit of methanol-based PP production is-923.33 yuan / ton; the gross profit of propane dehydrogenation-PP production is-597.31 yuan / ton; and the gross profit of propylene-based PP production is 22.57 yuan / ton. Production is expected to increase, but the range should be small, downstream construction remains stable, although plastic weaving and pipe construction is not expected to change much, but injection molding may continue to recover, supporting demand. Overall, the fundamentals are not obviously driven, the recent disk is more affected by methanol, it is expected that the short-term still around the cost of trading, the main contract shock is strong.

Polyethylene:

On Thursday, the mainstream price of oil linetype in North China was 8470 yuan / ton, compared with-10 yuan / ton last week; the mainstream price of oil linetype in East China was 8600 yuan / ton, unchanged from last week; and the mainstream price of oil linetype in South China was 8550 yuan / tonne, the same as last week. In terms of profit, the gross profit of oil polyethylene market is-361 yuan / ton, and that of coal polyethylene market is 1285 yuan / ton. Production is expected to increase slightly, but compared with last year's supply pressure is not big, demand is still difficult to improve, it is expected that the operating rate of agricultural film will continue to decline, downstream enterprises to rigid demand procurement, so it is expected that the upstream refinery and social inventory to the warehouse speed to slow down, comprehensive view of the weak supply and demand pattern, the polyethylene market is not obviously driven, short-term disk may be affected by macro sentiment and shock is strong, the basis is weak.

Polyvinyl chloride:

On Thursday, the market price of PVC in East China remained stable, with calcium carbide type 5 material 5670-5750 yuan / ton, ethylene mainstream reference 5800-6000 yuan / ton; North China PVC market price rose steadily and slightly, calcium carbide type 5 material mainstream reference 5600-5690 yuan / ton, ethylene mainstream reference 5810-6050 yuan / ton The price of South China PVC market is adjusted narrowly, the mainstream reference of calcium carbide type 5 material is about 5800-5850 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation of ethylene is 5820-5950 yuan / ton. Futures closed at 6087 yuan per ton, up 34 yuan per ton. Overall, the fundamentals show a pattern of both supply and demand, and the contradiction of the long-short game is the high level of social inventory, but the upstream refinery inventory actually dropped more than last year, while spot prices are at the low level of nearly five years, as long as macro sentiment remains stable, demand will be stable and good, and it is unlikely that refineries will significantly reduce prices, so it is expected that short-term PVC price shocks are strong, focusing on changes in social inventory.

Urea:

Urea futures prices on Thursday were weak after opening high, with the main contract closing at 2115 yuan per ton, down 0.56 per cent. The spot market is still strong, the prices of manufacturers in mainstream areas continue to increase by 100.50 yuan / ton, and market prices in some areas are slightly loosened. As of May 16, the market price in Linyi, Shandong Province was 2380 yuan / ton, a slight drop of 10 yuan / ton. Supply-side marginal change has been very limited, the daily output of the urea industry was stable at 174100 tons yesterday, and the market-driven market may have weakened in the later period. Although the demand side is still supported by rigid demand, the resistance to high prices in the middle and lower reaches continues to appear, and the transaction of new orders in urea enterprises slows down. In view of the fact that the current orders to be issued by manufacturers can be supported, the spot price offer is still relatively strong in the short term. Futures prices continue to maintain a strong and volatile trend, paying attention to changes in market sentiment.

Soda ash & glass:

On Thursday, soda ash futures prices diverged before and after, fluctuating in a narrow range in the morning and strong in the afternoon. The main 09 contract closed at 2160 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.89%. The price of soda ash futures strengthened last night, with the main contract up nearly 5%. From a fundamental point of view, the range of change in soda ash is relatively limited, the maintenance of individual enterprises has been extended to the end of the month, soda ash supply is still expected to decline. On the demand side, under the support of continuous ignition of photovoltaic glass, the rigid demand is strong, but the purchasing mood in the middle and lower reaches tends to be cautious and resistant to high prices. In the past two days, the market has once again spread environmental protection news in some areas, which does not rule out the possibility of a resurgence of supply-side disturbing factors. Soda ash futures prices are expected to continue the strong pattern of night trading within days, paying attention to the intensity of enterprise maintenance and the impact of market news.

Glass: Thursday glass futures prices were weak before and after strong, the main contract closing price of 1591 yuan / ton, up 1.66%. The center of gravity of the spot market fell slightly to 1690 yuan / ton. After the concentrated replenishment in the middle and lower reaches, the market turnover continued to weaken. Yesterday, the production and sales rate in Shahe area fell to 54%, and that in Hubei region fell to 78%. The changes in other areas were small, but all were less than 100%. The current strong support of the glass market comes from the continuous strengthening of real estate policy, but it will take time for a full recovery in terminal demand. Intraday glass futures prices are expected to continue the strong pattern of night trading, focusing on spot transactions, changes in market mentality and policy support.