scratch2020| Double reports were negative for why oil prices rose?

SourceScratch2020Grain and oil market report

The recent trend differentiation of vegetable oil is obvious to all. While palm oil is struggling not to sink deeper, rapeseed oil quietly looks up, the status of vegetable palm oil is completely reversed within a month, and the price difference between the two is widening. In the absence of the main tone, the grease went its own way, confusing the market, so people were waiting for guidance from the blockbuster report. When the report was released last week, coincidentally, the data were all bad, and unfortunately, one of them became a "counter-reference".

Malaysia Palm Oil monthly report released on May 10th, April inventory data was 1.74 million tons, ending the trend of six consecutive declines in stocks. Production jumped while exports fell, and negative reports weakened palm oil prices.

The USDA's May supply and demand report, which is closely followed by the USDA's May supply and demand report, has always been the focus of the market as it will forecast the new data for the first time, setting the standard for subsequent data adjustments. In the report, the sown area of adzuki bean used the intended planting area of 86.5 million acres at the end of March, and the per unit yield also followed the usual trend of 52 bushels per acre. The final output calculated by the two together is 6% higher than that of last year.Scratch2020.84 percent, reaching 121 million tons, the second highest level in history. Crushing and exports are estimated to be 66 million tons and 49.67 million tons respectively, an increase of 5.43% and 7.35% respectively over the same period last year. Under this adjustment, the carry-over inventory reached 12.11 million tons, an increase of 30.88% over the same period last year. Just looking at inventory, this report is extremely negative.

However, after the release of the report, the report rose slightly, and cowpea oil rose sharply, making the report slightly embarrassing.

Recently, the oil market is not quite stable. First, there was a frost in the main rapeseed producing areas in Europe in late April, which triggered a surge in international rapeseed prices and led to a strong price of domestic cuisine commodities to this day. Torrential rains have hit the Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul since the end of April. The state is the top three major soybean producing states in Brazil, and there are no soybeans in the fashion affected by floods. at present, the market is expected to reduce production by 2 to 3 million tons, pushing up international soybean prices. Recently, there are rumors in the market that the United States will impose tariffs on China's waste cooking oil, which can be used to refine biodiesel and sustainable aviation fuel. If the United States reduces imports, it will be positive for the demand for domestic soybean oil in the United States, which has risen significantly recently.

Against the backdrop of increasing weather and policies, the trend of food and legume commodities is stronger, while palm oil is slightly weaker.

On May 14, the national average price of soybean oil rose 66 yuan / ton compared with the end of April. Jiangsu's first-grade soybean oil was quoted at 7960,8020 yuan / ton, Guangzhou, 7970,8050 yuan / ton, Guangxi, 7950,8000 yuan / ton, Shandong 7880,7910 yuan / ton, Fujian 7950,8050 yuan / ton.

Rapeseed oil rose more than 400 yuan per ton at the end of April. On May 14, third-grade rapeseed oil was quoted at 8740 yuan / ton in Guangdong, 8680 yuan / ton in Guangxi, 8720 yuan / ton in Fujian, 8970 yuan / ton in Nantong and 9070 yuan / ton in Chengdu.

The average price of palm oil in China was 7900 yuan / ton on May 14, down 43 yuan / ton from the end of April. The price of 24-degree palm oil in Jiangsu, Guangzhou, Shandong and Tianjin was 7760 yuan / ton, 7870 yuan / ton, 8020 yuan / ton and 7950 yuan / ton respectively.

In terms of domestic fundamentals, steel federation data show that as of May 10, the total commercial inventory of oil in the three key areas of the country was 1.62185 million tons, down 3.44% from last week and 11.33% from the same period last year. Since the beginning of the year, with the continuous destocking of palm oil, the three major oil stocks have been declining, but in the face of the arrival of a large number of South American soybeans and imported rapeseed to Hong Kong, the inflection point of oil accumulation may be just around the corner. At present, oil consumption has not improved significantly, but the supply pressure has been increasing, and it is difficult to change the pattern of oversupply of domestic vegetable oil.

With the spring sowing in major producing countries such as China and the United States, the market focus will turn to the weather. It is usually easy to rise and fall during the growing season, which will be the biggest support for vegetable oil prices in the coming months. Generally speaking, we should not only accept the current situation of loose supply, but also deal with the ups and downs caused by climate change.