crashbandicoot2023| PTA rebounded after falling

Source: Longzhong Petrochemical Network Chemical Fiber

Introduction: since last weekCrashbandicoot2023The macro support is insufficient, the PX supply is overcharged, and the cost support is weakened. after the overhaul of the TA multi-plant, the Hengli Huizhou 2.5 million ton and Jiaxing petrochemical 2.2 million ton plant was restarted during the week, the Yisheng new material 3.6 million ton plant was shut down as planned, and some of the devices were loaded. The supply and demand of the industry is falling, and the reality of the industry is going to the warehouse. Delivery month and future supply and demand weakening check sentiment, TA current market prices fall, considering the actual supply and demand of the industry is good, the industry to maintain the treasury, the market price is gradually strong.

Cost: macro weak PX supply oversupply

As of this week (202405010-0516), the trend of the industrial chain is lower, with a naphtha ring ratio of-1Crashbandicoot2023.54%, PX cycle ratio-1Crashbandicoot2023.32%. The average prices of PTA and polyester products have been adjusted back. On the profit side, PXN narrowed slightly to-0.88 per cent to US $341 per tonne. The decline of PTA converged and the processing fee was slightly repaired, with a month-on-month ratio of + 1.12% to 376.85 yuan / ton. Polyester plate is still at a loss, the product deficit continues.

Supply: 2 sets of plant restart, 1 set of equipment overhaul TA capacity utilization decreased by 3% compared with last week

As of this week (20240510-0516), Hengli Huizhou Petrochemical Co., Ltd., Jiaxing Petrochemical Co., Ltd., Hengli Huizhou Petrochemical Co., Ltd., Jiaxing Petrochemical Co., Ltd., Hengli Huizhou Petrochemical Co., Ltd., Jiaxing Petrochemical Co., Ltd., Hengli Huizhou Petrochemical Co., Ltd., Jiaxing Petrochemical Co., Ltd., Hengli Huizhou Petrochemical Co., Ltd., Jiaxing Petrochemical Co., Ltd., Hengli Huizhou Petrochemical Co., Ltd., Jiaxing Petrochemical Co., Ltd. This week's domestic PTA output is 1.1996 million tons, compared with last week-57100 tons, compared with the same period-40300 tons. Superimposed last week's overhaul equipment, the overall supply of TA narrowed, even if polyester has a synchronous negative, but low expectations, the industry to maintain storage.

Demand: polyester production reduction in reality, benign supply and demand

Weekly output of China's polyester industry: 1.3763 million tons, down 27500 tons from last week and 1.96 percent month-on-month. China's polyester industry weekly average capacity utilization: 86.98%, compared with last week-1.73%. Production and capacity utilization are downCrashbandicoot2023The main reasons are: some enterprises reduce production, overhaul, such as Xinfengming, Hengyi, more production reduction in the early stage of superposition, obvious shrinkage of the polyester industry as a whole, a significant decline in production and capacity utilization during the week.

Next week, the weekly output of China's polyester industry is expected to be around 1.39 million tons, and the average weekly capacity utilization of China's polyester industry is around 88%, a slight increase over the current period. At present, the device is expected to restart, such as Hanjiang, Yipeng, etc., the domestic polyester industry supply will increase slightly. TA, Honggang petrochemical, Hengli petrochemical plan to restart, Fuhua plan to reduce the negative. The integration of industrial supply and demand to maintain the treasury, but the intensity has narrowed.

Category

PTA output

PTA import volume

PTA export volume

Actual consumption

Balance difference (right)

2024-5-16

119.96

0.05

7.45

122.64

-10.09

2024-5-23

127.02

0.05

7.45

123.76

-4.15

2024-5-30

129.57

0.05

7.45

124.16

-2.00

2024-6-6

129.82

0.03

7.06

124.59

-1.80

Generally speaking, the stabilization of crude oil has been repaired, the macro atmosphere has been improved, there is support in the chemical sector, polyester industry supply and demand is benign, it is expected that the TA period is now strong and weak consolidation.