dapperlabsgames| Everbright Futures: May 23 Energy and Chemical Daily

Crude oil:

WednesdayDapperlabsgamesSC2407, the main contract for crude oil, closed down 1.Dapperlabsgames.99%, at 605Dapperlabsgames.6 yuan per barrel; WTI July contract closed down 1.09 US dollars per barrel to 77.57 US dollars per barrel, down 1.38 per cent; Brent July contract closed down 98 US dollars per barrel to 81.90 US dollars per barrel, down 1.18 per cent. U.S. gasoline inventories fell by 945000 barrels that week and are expected to fall by about 700000 barrels, according to EIA data; gasoline inventories fell as a result of increased demand ahead of peak driving in the summer, while crude oil and distillate stocks unexpectedly increased by 1.8 million barrels that week and are expected to decline by about 2.5 million barrels. Refinery operating rate rose 1.3 percentage points to 91.7%. Recently, oil prices are mainly affected by macro factors, and the three major institutions have downgraded the growth rate of global crude oil demand during the year.DapperlabsgamesThe expectations of major institutions for the crude oil market began to turn. However, in the short term, the peak season of overseas gasoline consumption is approaching, and we can see that the cracking price difference of overseas oil products and the apparent demand for oil products in the United States have rebounded, so it is expected that short-term oil prices may stabilize and pick up against the background of marginal rebound in demand.

Fuel oil:

On Wednesday, FU2409, the main contract for fuel oil in the previous period, closed down 0.95% at 3437 yuan / ton, while LU2408, the main contract for low-sulfur fuel oil, closed down 2.95% at 4147 yuan / ton. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's fuel oil output in April 2024 was 3.464 million tons, down 13.83 percent from the previous month and 30.22 percent from the same period last year. According to customs data, China imported 3.7197 million tons of fuel oil in April, an increase of 22.72 percent from the previous month and 36.48 percent from the same period last year. Exports of fuel oil were 1.7453 million tons, an increase of 23.42 percent month-on-month and 21.94 percent higher than the same period last year. In terms of high sulfur, supply is beginning to gradually shrink, while summer power generation demand in South Asian countries will provide some support for the future fundamentals of high-sulfur fuel oil. Therefore, we also see that the recent trend of high sulfur in the inner and outer market is relatively stronger than that of low sulfur, especially the price difference between high and low sulfur in the inner disk continues to narrow. It is expected that in the short term, under the support of the supply and demand side, this situation of high sulfur stronger than low sulfur will continue, and the price difference between high and low sulfur will remain at a low level.

Asphalt:

On Wednesday, BU2409, the main contract for asphalt, closed down 0.54% at 3689 yuan / ton. According to Longzhong information, as of May 20, the inventory of asphalt in China totaled 2.872 million tons, down 1.4 percent from the previous month; the inventory of 54 domestic asphalt sample plants totaled 1.217 million tons, down 0.1 percent from the previous month; and the capacity utilization rate of 81 domestic asphalt enterprises was 26.5 percent, an increase of 0.8 percent. Despite recent news from the market that the United States may extend some companies' oil business licenses in Venezuela, the diluted asphalt discount has remained stable in recent months, and the rebound in supply is not obvious at present, but it is expected that some refineries will return to production capacity next month, which may bring some supply pressure. On the demand side, there have been signs of a marginal rebound in terminal demand recently, but it is still weak compared with the same period last year. It is expected that the short-term asphalt panel price is still dominated by interval shocks, paying attention to the degree of incremental cashing at both ends of supply and demand.

Rubber:

On Wednesday, by the close of trading on Wednesday, RU2409, the main force of Shanghai rubber, rose 110 yuan / ton to 14835 yuan / ton, NR rose 95 yuan / ton to 12385 yuan / ton, and butadiene rubber BR rose 5 yuan / ton to 13670 yuan / ton. Yesterday, Shanghai whole latex 14100 (+ 0), whole milk-RU2409 spread-710 (+ 60), RMB mixed 13850 (+ 13850), mixed-RU2409 spread-960 (+ 210), BR9000 Qilu spot 13500 (- 50), BR9000-BR main force-160 (+ 65). In the first four months of 2024, Vietnam exported 499000 tons of rubber, valued at US $743 million, an increase of 6.4% in volume and 14% in value. China is the largest importer of Vietnamese rubber, accounting for 80% of the country's total rubber exports. As of May 19, 2024, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 1.329 million tons, a decrease of 26000 tons, or 1.91%, compared with the previous period. The total stock of dark glue in China was 794000 tons, down 2.4 per cent from the previous period. The total stock of light-colored rubber in China was 535000 tons, down 1.18% from the previous period. The interference of precipitation in domestic and foreign production areas, the strengthening of raw material prices in production areas, the resumption of work by downstream tire manufacturers, and the introduction of real estate policies are conducive to pulling the demand for heavy trucks, supporting all-steel tires, natural rubber continues to go to the warehouse, and rubber prices are on the strong side. Pay attention to domestic inventory expectations and EUDR progress.

Polyester:

TA409 closed yesterday at 5896 yuan / ton, down 0.34%. The spot offer rose 09 yuan to about 2 yuan / ton. EG2409 closed yesterday at 4520 yuan / ton, down 0.13%, the basis increased by 3 yuan / ton to-44 yuan / ton, spot quotation 4480 yuan / ton. The main contract of PX futures closed at 8496 yuan / ton, down 0.07%. The spot negotiation price is US $1028 / ton, the RMB price is 8578 yuan / ton, and the base spread is expanded from 30 yuan / ton to 72 yuan / ton. A 260000-ton / year ethylene glycol plant from syngas in Inner Mongolia is being restarted and is initially expected to be released tomorrow and the day after tomorrow. The device was stopped for overhaul on May 12 due to equipment problems. A 300000-ton / year ethylene glycol plant from syngas in Inner Mongolia has been released recently and its load is gradually rising. the device had been stopped for maintenance near May 13 due to equipment problems. The overall production and marketing of polyester in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is weak, and the average production and marketing is estimated at about 40%. The price of crude oil at the cost side fell, the TA maintenance equipment resumed one after another, and the price of PX fluctuated in a narrow range. The demand for TA is weak and dragged, but the centralized overhaul of TA improves the supply and demand structure of TA, and the removal of inventory in May is considerable. From the point of view of ethylene glycol, the overall start-up of ethylene glycol is negative, the peak of coal consumption in June, the possibility of high maintenance of coal-to-ethylene glycol start-up remains to be observed, the starting load of downstream polyester falls, and short-term ethylene glycol concussion is expected.

Methanol:

On Wednesday, spot prices in Taicang were 2800 yuan per ton, Inner Mongolia North Line prices were 2205 yuan per ton, CFR China prices were 310-315 US dollars per ton, and CFR Southeast Asian prices were 360-365 US dollars per ton. Downstream, the price of formaldehyde in Shandong is 1200 yuan / ton, the price of acetic acid in Jiangsu is 3150-3250 yuan / ton, and the price of MTBE in Shandong is 6850 yuan / ton. Short-term supply side is expected to increase, downstream demand is weaker, mainland inventory may still be under pressure, while the overall port inventory pressure is not great, total inventory is expected to accumulate slightly. Generally speaking, at present, the overall inventory level of methanol is low, and the basis difference is at a high level, superimposed macro expectations are strong, short-term methanol is still treated as strong, and the basis difference is expected to weaken.

Polypropylene:

On Wednesday, the mainstream of wire drawing in East China was 7680-7850 yuan / ton. On the supply side, Shenhua Baotou (300000 tons / year) PP plant restart, Dalian Hengli STPP line (200000 tons / year) PP plant restart. Guangxi Hongyi (150000 t / a) PP device is stopped for maintenance. In terms of profit, the gross profit of oil-based PP is-929 yuan / ton; the gross profit of coal-based PP production is-221.92 yuan / ton; the gross profit of methanol-based PP production is-852.33 yuan / ton; the gross profit of propane dehydrogenation-PP production is-715.36 yuan / ton; and the gross profit of propylene-based PP production is 132.5 yuan / ton. Part of the preliminary maintenance equipment will resume production, the output is expected to increase, but the range should be small, downstream construction remains stable, although plastic weaving and pipe start is expected to change little, but injection molding may continue to recover, forming support for demand. Overall, the fundamentals are not obviously driven, the recent disk is more affected by methanol, it is expected that the short-term still around the cost of trading, the main contract shock is strong.

Polyethylene:

On Wednesday, the mainstream price of East China HDPE spot market was 8600 yuan / ton, up 50 yuan / ton from the previous working day; the mainstream price of East China LDPE was 9950 yuan / ton, up 50 yuan / ton from the previous working day; the mainstream price of LLDPE market in North China was 8550 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous working day; and polyethylene futures closed at 8579 yuan / ton, 70 yuan / ton lower than the previous working day. In terms of profit, the gross profit of oil polyethylene market is-356 yuan / ton, and that of coal polyethylene market is 1437 yuan / ton. Production is expected to increase slightly, but compared with last year's supply pressure is not big, demand is still difficult to improve, agricultural film operating rate will continue to decline, downstream enterprises to rigid demand procurement, so upstream refineries and social inventory to slow down, comprehensive supply and demand weak pattern, polyethylene market is not obviously driven, short-term disk may be affected by macro sentiment and shock is strong, basis weakening.

Polyvinyl chloride:

On Wednesday, the price of PVC in East China rose steadily and slightly, with calcium carbide type 5 material 5950-6040 yuan / ton, ethylene mainstream reference 6100-6250 yuan / ton; North China PVC market price rose slightly steadily, calcium carbide type 5 mainstream reference 5850-5930 yuan / ton, ethylene mainstream reference 6070-6300 yuan / ton The price of South China PVC market is stable and loose, the mainstream reference of calcium carbide type 5 material is about 6100-6160 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation of ethylene material is 6150-6250 yuan / ton. Futures closed at 6383 yuan per ton, up 52 yuan per ton. Generally speaking, the current valuation level of PVC is not high, and the main contract is far away from the delivery time, the logic of basis regression will not become the main line of trading in the short term, and the market will pick up the demand for trading and repair the valuation, so it is expected that the short-term shock of the main contract of PVC is still strong and the basis is weak.

Urea:

Urea futures prices were weak and volatile on Wednesday, with the main contract closing price of 2192 yuan / ton, down 0.41%. The spot market is mostly stable, with prices fluctuating slightly in some areas. at present, the market price in Linyi, Shandong Province is 2385 yuan / ton, an increase of 5 yuan / ton compared with the previous month. Yesterday, the urea industry has a daily output of 173400 tons. Although there are plans to resume production in the later stage, Nissan is now rising slowly. The rigid demand is mainly promoted, especially since the last ten days, the production of high-nitrogen compound fertilizer has gradually ended, the use of rice fertilizer in the south has basically ended, and the activity of the urea market will be further slowed down during the wheat harvest season in the agricultural mainstream areas. demand-side support is expected to gradually weaken. On the whole, there are expectations of weakening at both ends of urea supply and demand, and the recent initiative of some manufacturers to protect supply and stabilize prices has weakened market sentiment. In view of the current commodity market as a whole is relatively strong, and urea manufacturers still have support for pending orders. It is expected that the short-term market is not driven by a sharp decline, and the trend is treated as a weak and fluctuating train of thought, and the weekly short selling strategy can still be considered to guard against the continuous improvement of macro sentiment and the disturbance of changes in the international market.

Soda ash & glass:

The price of soda ash futures was strong on Wednesday, with the main contract closing at 2425 yuan per ton, up 2.8 per cent. The price of soda ash futures fluctuated widely in the night trading yesterday, and the trend fell slightly. The spot market is still strong, and the quotations of local manufacturers are still slightly raised. At present, the price of heavy alkali in Shahe region is 2200 yuan / ton, an increase of 50,100 yuan / ton compared with last week. From a fundamental point of view, recently, large alkali plants in Jiangsu, Shandong and other regions are under maintenance, the industry operating rate has maintained a periodic low fluctuation of 81.38%, and the disturbance on the supply side has been improved. The rigid demand on the demand side is mainly followed up, but there is still resistance to high prices in the middle and lower reaches, and the purchase intention and hoarding intention are weakened. On the whole, the seasonal overhaul of alkali plants in summer high temperature weather is still expected to bring a decline in supply, and from a medium-term point of view, the price center of soda ash is still driven upward, but after the recent rapid rise in the market, pay attention to changes in market sentiment and capital dynamics, do not rule out the possibility of intra-day correction. We should also pay attention to the resistance in the middle and lower reaches, the impact of imported soda ash and the overall trend of the domestic commodity market. Glass: glass futures prices fluctuated widely on Wednesday, with the main contract closing at 1674 yuan / ton, up 0.9%. The spot market for glass is still weak, with the average domestic price falling back to 1671 yuan / ton yesterday. Spot production and sales can be maintained, but the new drive to the market is not enough. Yesterday, the production and sales rate in Shahe region fell to 105%, while the rest of the region hovered in the range of 80% to 90%. The mentality of the spot industrial chain and terminal real estate have not yet fully recovered, and with the end of the digestion of the positive factors of the market's support for real estate policy, the upward momentum of the market has weakened again, and the trend has been treated with high-level and wide-range concussion. guard against the risk of pullback and continue to pay attention to the recovery of spot transactions and terminal real estate demand.