gamecabinet| Liner companies such as Maersk and COSCO raise prices: SCFIS is expected to exceed 4500 points

Newsletter summary

Shipping market capacity is tight, liner companies frequently issue price increase notices. Shanghai to Europe route FAK prices rose sharply, June SCFIS is expected to exceed 4200 points, August contract supported by demand prospects. The delivery of ships is slow and the supply of transport capacity is limited.

Text of news flash

[shipping market ushered in a new wave of price increases, a number of shipping companies raised prices]

Recently, due to the tight capacity of the shipping market, liner companies have issued letters of price increase after mid-June. Maersk announced that the FAK offer from Shanghai to Rotterdam rose to $3,325,500 after June 17, CMA raised its offer from Asia to Europe to $370,000, and COSCO's offer for the period from June 1 to 14 was revised to $3700.

[SCFI index rises, contract delivery and settlement prices may hit a record high]

Quotations for routes from Shanghai to Europe continued to rise, rising to $3409 / TEU on May 24th. According to the SCFIS index, SCFIS may approach 3900 on June 10 and may break through the $3700 / TEU mark at the end of the month. Considering the principle of calculating the settlement price for delivery of EC2406 contracts, SCFIS may break through 4200 points on June 17th.

[August contract is recognized by the market, there is a lot of potential room for rise]

Although the pricing information is updated frequently, it is not uncommon for the price increase letter to quote over-the-counter prices of $7000, and CMA and ONE have even quoted over-the-counter prices of $8000. This price range corresponds to the SCFIS index between 4500 and 5000, with the increase in freight rates thanks to strong support from the supply side and expected to boost August contracts as demand for Christmas stock increases in Europe.

[positions in Container Futures decreased, some contract prices rose]

As of May 24, 2023, the holdings of all contracts in Container Futures fell to 85851 lots, a decrease of 3734 hands from the previous week. Among them, the EC2504 contract increased by 2%.Gamecabinet.36% Dem EC2406 contract increased by 6.12% Dem EC 2408 contract increased by 5.64% Dem EC 2410 contract and EC2412 contract increased by 8.22% and 6.27% respectively.

[the bypass structure of container ships is stable, and the supply of transport capacity is tight]

The number of container ships in the Suez Canal, the Strait of Mande and the Gulf of Aden remained low, with an average daily number of container ships passing through the Suez Canal of about 5.29, while the number of traffic through the Cape of good Hope increased significantly. It should be noted that the success of the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks is not immediately reflected in the passage of the Suez Canal, and it will take time for shipping companies to adjust the shipping schedule.

[ship delivery speed is lower than expected, and the supply of far East-Europe capacity is limited in the first half of the year]

Ship delivery was lower than expected in May and the supply of actual capacity from the far East to Europe was limited in the first half of the year. Although the delivery speed of container ships has been accelerated, due to the absorption of route detourGamecabinetAs a result of most of the new capacity, the actual available capacity is still tight.

[risk factors need to be paid attention to, market changes may affect the trend of freight rates]

There are downside risks in the market, including the economic downturn in Europe and the United States, the sharp fall in crude oil prices, higher-than-expected ship delivery and the resolution of the Red Sea crisis. At the same time, uplink risks can not be ignored, such as economic recovery in Europe and the United States, the recurrence of supply chain problems, liner companies to reduce capacity or the Red Sea crisis continues to ferment, etc., may promote freight rates to rise further.