crouchingtigerhiddendragonthegreenlegend| Gold prices ride a "roller coaster"

Our reporter Han Yu

The near futureCrouchingtigerhiddendragonthegreenlegendThe price of gold is out of the roller coaster market. Take the international spot price of gold as an example. Wind data show that since the beginning of March this year, the spot price of London gold (hereinafter referred to as "Loco-London gold") has fluctuated rapidly upward, rising by as much as 9% a month in March.Crouchingtigerhiddendragonthegreenlegend.28%.

This upward trend continued in mid-early April. From April 1 to April 19, the current price of London gold rose strongly again by 7%.Crouchingtigerhiddendragonthegreenlegend.09%. From April 22 to April 30, gold prices began to turn downwards, falling by 4.43% in seven trading days. The current price of Loco-London gold ended up up just 2.34% in April as a result of a correction in the latter part of the month.

From May 1 to May 20, the current price of London gold showed a volatile upward trend, rising 6.13%. It also hit 2450.10 US dollars per ounce in intraday trading on May 20, setting another all-time high. Then, from May 21 to May 23, gold closed down for three consecutive trading days. However, as of May 24, when gold closed at $2333.75 an ounce, the current price of London gold is still up 2.10% since May and remains high.

Why does the price of gold fluctuate violently recently? Liu Siyuan, chief analyst of Shouxiu Finance and Economics, said in an interview with the Securities Daily that the main reason is that the market is strongly divided about the future. The recent ups and downs of US economic and employment data have led to an increasingly cautious attitude of the Federal Reserve towards interest rate cuts, and the "window" of interest rate cuts has been repeatedly delayed. The gold short-term bulls use the Fed interest rate cut expectations to continue to push up gold prices, overdraft expected increases, resulting in market sentiment is very sensitive. Once US economic data are not conducive to interest rate cuts, short-term bulls will quickly cash in profits and leave, causing gold prices to fluctuate sharply.

According to reports, the latest US PMI (purchasing managers' index) was released on May 23rd, and the US composite PMI index rose to 54.4in May, the highest level in two years. Among them, the manufacturing PMI reached a 2-month high and broke through the 50 mark, while the service PMI also reached a 12-month high. The minutes of the Fed's May monetary policy meeting released on the same day also showed that some Fed officials were willing to raise interest rates again if the risk of inflation continued to rise. Higher-than-expected economic data and hawkish signals from the minutes of monetary policy meetings have put pressure on gold prices.

It is worth mentioning that although international gold prices have fluctuated at high levels since March, the trading mood in the market is still hot. According to the latest data from the World Gold Council, the trading volume of the global gold market continued to increase in April, with the average daily trading volume of the global gold market rising 12 per cent from the previous month to $247 billion at the end of the month. The volume of over-the-counter transactions increased 6 per cent to $126 billion per day.

Chen Yuheng, a senior investment adviser at Jufeng Investment, told the Securities Daily that in the short term, the increase in trading volume usually means an increase in market interest in gold, which may be due to a variety of factors, such as global market uncertainty. leading investors to seek safe-haven assets.

Liu Siyuan also believes that the surge in trading volume contains potential risks beneath the hot surface, which means that the consensus bullish expectations of the market have diverged.CrouchingtigerhiddendragonthegreenlegendHe believes that the uncertainty of the Fed's monetary policy has led to long-short differences in gold in the short and medium term, and gold prices are expected to remain at historically high levels and continue to fluctuate substantially.