slotzo| The trend of deposit relocation in May remains unchanged: individual customers are keen on financial management to snap up ultra-long-term treasury bonds. Public deposits flow from large banks to urban commercial banks to "gain"

Source: financial Union

Reporter Liang Kezhi

Today, the second issue of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds is on sale to individuals. A reporter from the Financial Associated Press learned from the outlets of China Merchants Bank that the 20-year ultra-long-term special treasury bonds had been sold out within half an hour.

A reporter from the Financial Associated Press learned from the industry that individual customers have snapped up ultra-long-term treasury bonds recently.SlotzoThe phenomenon is one aspect of the current move of bank deposits. With the continuous reduction of deposit interest rates and the rise of financial market returns, whether for public or individual customers, the situation of deposit relocation is becoming more and more obvious.

On May 27, Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher in the Financial Markets Department of Everbright Bank, told the Financial Associated Press that the suspension of manual interest payments does drive the search for higher returns on public demand deposits. At the same time, we should also see the attraction of rising market yields on deposits, especially individual deposits.

Everbright Securities released a report on May 24, showing that since May, the financial return center 3Slotzo.4%, the "disintermediation" power continues. As of May 19, the estimated scale of financial management has increased by more than 400 billion compared with the beginning of the month, while the average monthly increase in financial management from 2022 to May 2023 is less than 100 billion.

Earlier, a person at the Guangzhou branch of a joint stock bank told the financial union that after the suspension of manual interest payment, some of the public funds were transferred from the big bank to the city commercial bank, signing annual agreement deposits and other forms to lock in income because of the time difference in implementation.

Personal savings move in a new direction for financial management

On May 27, a person from a branch of the Bank of China in Guangzhou told the Financial Associated Press that fixed deposits have been the first choice for most individual customers since last year, but since the beginning of this year, investors have increased their rush to buy local bonds and treasury bonds. at the same time, the proportion of purchasing various financial management and insurance has increased since March.

Wang Yifeng, an analyst at Everbright Securities, said on May 24 that since the beginning of the year, there has been insufficient demand for effective credit and abundant funds in the market. The bulls in the bond market have boosted the rate of return on financial management. The yield center of fixed income financial management has been above 3% for nearly one month from January to April 2024.

At the same time, as Chinese stock banks cut the deposit listing interest rate for the third time this year in December 2023, the listing interest rate for all terms fell to less than 2% (inclusive), accelerating the "disintermediation" of retail general deposits under the price comparison effect. According to the data, household deposits fell by 1.85 trillion in April, down 650 billion from a year earlier, and some of the estimates turned to bank financial management.

Zhou Maohua, a researcher at Everbright Bank, said that recent data do show that the scale of financial management is on the rise, in which individual purchases have been increasing since the beginning of the year and would not be attractive without increased returns and security. Treasury bonds are very popular and reflect the structural problems of bank deposits from another point of view. On the whole, there are still more deposits.

National banks are greatly affected by public demand deposits and resort to the issuance of inter-bank certificates of deposit.

In terms of public interest, Liu Chengxiang, an open source securities analyst, estimated on May 26th that the total amount of deposits of state-owned banks / joint-stock banks / urban commercial banks / agricultural commercial banks involved in "manual interest compensation" was about 20 trillion yuan, accounting for 42% of public demand deposits, 55%, 32% and 20% respectively.

The latest report of Caixin Securities also believes that according to the average cost rate of public demand deposits by listed national stock banks at the end of 2023, the average cost rate of public demand deposits is 1.18%, which is much higher than the interest rate judgment of the five major banks and China Merchants Bank listing units of 0.2%. The pricing of public deposits "manual interest" may be more common.

According to the static calculation results of Caixin Securities, the scale of hand-paid interest deposits by state-owned stock banks may be between 17 and 19 trillion, and the proportion of interest-compensated deposits in all enterprise demand deposits may be between 50% and 53%.

Where are the corporate demand deposits? Liu Min of Caixin Securities believes that for the conservation needs of funds of large central state-owned enterprises, funds may flow to cash management products, short-term enterprise time deposits or structural deposits, and other enterprise deposits with relatively loose financial management requirements, or part of it goes to fixed-income products.

However, for nearly 20 trillion of outflows of deposits, there are also side effects on bank liquidity and the deposit-to-loan ratio.

Liu Chengxiang, an open source securities, said that from the debt side, in order to fill the gap in the loss of public demand deposits, the issuance of state-owned interbank deposits increased in April, 118.8 billion yuan more than in the same period last year; from the asset side, due to the loss of deposits, the scale of state-owned bank-funded finance declined significantly in April.