SafariSpinSafari| Starting tomorrow, the northbound funds will be "invisible"! These major events will also affect A shares

Just past trading week (5SafariSpinSafari.6 / 5.10)SafariSpinSafariAlthough A shares fluctuated, the rising trend did not stop. The Shanghai Composite Index briefly entered a technical bull market, and most of the other major indexes also performed well.

The first week of May got off to a good start, further boosting market sentiment. In a healthy and optimistic atmosphere, the catalysis of news in the face of the market is more worthy of attention.

Without saying much, start reviewing and looking forward to this week right away.

I. Prospect of major events next week

The biggest change in A-shares next week is undoubtedly that starting from Monday (May 13), northbound capital data (purchases, sales, turnover, etc.) will be "invisible" in intraday trading and will be replaced by:

When the daily quota balance of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect is greater than or equal to 30%, the "quota is sufficient".

When less than 30%, publish the quota balance in real time.

Truncated from Wind related interface

At that time, investors who are accustomed to using the northbound direction as a "weather vane" when pegging may not adapt briefly.

However, since last year, more and more investors think that "we should look at the impact of northward funds rationally", and they are obviously happy to see the new situation tomorrow.

According to reports, the arrangement of the trading information disclosure mechanism of the Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect was originally designed to effectively reveal and remind investors of the use of trading quotas, but its disclosure frequency and content are different from the general habits of information disclosure in the A-share market. it is also different from the common practice in the international mainstream market.

From the perspective of international practice, mainstream markets such as Europe and the United States do not disclose the trading information of a particular category of investors in real time, nor do they make differential arrangements for domestic and international investors in the transaction information disclosure mechanism.

We said before that the reaction of the market tomorrow is worth observing and pondering.

One-day ups and downs are important, but trading never stops. It is believed that the market will soon "naturally select" a new emotional indicator to help make decisions, and investors who are the first to adapt to change will have an advantage.

Apart from the "invisibility" of northward funds, what other major events are there to pay attention to next week?

May 13th

The Ministry of Finance holds a kick-off meeting for the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds

According to the Financial Associated Press, in order to ensure the smooth and smooth issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, the Treasury Department of the Ministry of Finance decided to hold a mobilization and deployment meeting for the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, which is scheduled for 9: 00 a.m. The person in charge of the bookkeeping treasury bond underwriting business of each unit is required to attend the meeting.

On April 22 this year, Wang Jianfan, director of the Budget Department of the Ministry of Finance, said at a news conference of the State Information Office that according to the distribution of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds should be launched in a timely manner.

OpenAI plans to release a new version of GPT-4

OpenAI said in a post that the product update would be announced live on Monday. This release will focus on updates to ChatGPT and GPT-4 artificial intelligence models, and will not launch GPT-5 at the event.

"it's not GPT-5, it's not a search engine, but we're trying to develop something new that we think people will like," CEO Sam Altman wrote on social media X on May 10.

May 14th

Alibaba will announce the results for fiscal year 2024.

Google announced that it will hold the 2024 IZP O developer Conference on the same day.

May 15th

The launch of Huawei's new products in summer will be held at 14:30.

The nova 12 SE, Changxuan 80, Matebook 14, MatePad 11.5 tablets, WATCHFit3 and others are expected to be released, as well as a self-developed painting App "born to draw".

In addition, Hong Kong stocks will be closed for Buddha's Birthday. The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect of northbound trading and the Hong Kong Stock Connect of southbound trading are suspended at the same time.

May 16th

Qingyu year 2 will premiere on both platforms on CCTV-8 and Tencent Video next Thursday.

In 2019, after the broadcast of "the rest of the year", it triggered an upsurge of TV drama chase across the network.

This week, "Qingyu years 2" broke through the 15 million mark in Tencent Video's reservation volume, becoming the first TV series to reach the order of 10 million reservations of the whole network. The related information also caused a huge response on Weibo, and related topics quickly went viral.

If you want to participate in this brand theme hype, here is a simple sharing of ideas:

First of all, the incident obviously involves the media sector. Look at the relevant companies on the production side, the player side and the participating side, and select the stock pool.

Before broadcasting, observe whether the plate has funds to get first hand, which stocks are more popular, and decide whether to follow up.

After broadcasting, observe the popularity and popularity of the TV series, as well as the degree of cash in the capital market, and decide whether or not to participate.

Although popular science essays have been circulated at the weekend, it is recommended that everyone do their homework by themselves.

May seventeenth

The National Bureau of Statistics will hold a press conference on the operation of the national economy. at the meeting, monthly reports on industrial production above scale, monthly reports on investment in fixed assets (excluding farmers), monthly reports on real estate development and sales, monthly reports on retail sales of consumer goods and monthly reports on energy production will be released.

Also released on the same day are April 70 city house price data.

Previous data showed that in March, the price of newly built commercial housing in first-tier cities fell 0.1% month-on-month, 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous month, while the price of new commercial housing in second-tier and third-tier cities fell 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively, the same rate as the previous month.

In the market

Next week, the people's Bank of China will have 10 billion yuan of reverse repo due in the open market, of which 2 billion yuan will be due every day from Monday to Friday. In addition, there are 125 billion yuan MLF due on the 15th.

According to Wind data, a total of 60 A shares will be lifted one after another next week, with a total of 2.85 billion shares lifted, with a total market capitalization of 39.979 billion yuan based on the closing price on May 10.

The top three in the market capitalization of lifting the ban are: Yahuilong (7.613 billion yuan), Bozhong Seiko (7.015 billion yuan) and Maixinlin (2.276 billion yuan). From the perspective of the number of individual stocks, the top three are Guohai Securities (000750) (352 million shares), Bozhong Seiko (349 million shares) and Yahuilong (300 million shares).

In terms of new shares, N Reddy will be listed on the gem of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on the 13th, Maifu will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on the 16th, and Hongying City Services will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on the 17th.

Second, we should take stock in the near future.

The pace of policy deregulation in the property market is speeding up.

This week, Hangzhou and Xi'an, the two major provincial capitals, announced the complete lifting of home purchase restrictions. Up to now, except for Hainan Province, the purchase restriction policy of going north to Shenzhen is still relatively strict, and there are still some purchase restrictions in some core areas of cities such as Guangzhou (less than 120 square meters) and Tianjin (less than 120 square meters of new houses, etc.).

Prior to this, Beijing, Tianjin, Shenzhen and other places have relaxed the purchase restrictions, Changsha, Chengdu and other cities have completely lifted the purchase restrictions.

Some analysts said that the recent intensive and loosening of property market policies in hot cities are all concrete implementation of the "coordinating research on policies and measures to digest existing real estate and optimize incremental housing" proposed for the first time at the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee on April 30. Digging existing real estate, namely, de-stocking, is a top priority. Therefore, finding every means to remove inventory has become the main goal of the new round of policy easing in various places.

In A-shares, the real estate development sector rose 2.81% on Friday, but the weekly increase was only 2.58%, which was not particularly impressive.

The real estate services sector, which surged 6.11% on Friday, rose 10.46% this week, second only to synthetic biology.

Du Hao, an analyst at Guojin Securities