pokertablesnearme| Urea: Before accumulating, the trend is difficult to change

Oil market blueberry

Core point: in terms of neutral supply, Nissan may have declined slightly recently.PokertablesnearmeThe export policy is relaxed, but the export profit is poor, and the export volume is difficult to increase greatly; at present, the demand for compound fertilizer is good, and there is still a certain demand for plate. Taken together, the current market price of urea is high, but the persistence of downstream demand remains to be tested, and the price may continue to fluctuate widely in the short term.

Monthly difference: the current basis of the neutral 09 contract returns to the high level, and the difference between September and January tends to widen.

Policy: neutral has no important policy this week.

Spot: due to the recent increase in enterprise maintenance, agricultural needs continue, spot sales are better, enterprises receive sufficient orders in advance, the spot is strong or will continue.

Inventory: neutral agricultural demand peak season, inventory continues to decline, the recent downstream demand is still good, compound fertilizer enterprises purchase actively, enterprises continue to go to the warehouse, before the accumulation of storage, the tight supply and demand of urea is more difficult to improve.

Export: the neutral export law inspection policy is basically liberalized, but the current export profit is almost zero, and it is difficult for the export volume to increase substantially.

Demand: although neutral hollow compound fertilizer enterprises concentrate on picking up goods, the operating rate is high, the price is not good, and the sustainability of demand remains to be confirmed; in terms of industrial demand, the demand for melamine is OK, but the profit of melamine is poor, and the operating rate is difficult to maintain a high level.

Spot price rebounds

Average daily spot price of urea

Affected by the pressure on the policy end in the early part of last week, the spot price of urea showed a certain degree of correction, but then the output was affected by the overhaul of urea enterprises, the demand of the downstream compound fertilizer plant continued to follow up, the factory received more orders in advance, and the spot price returned to the upward trend.

Spot market price of urea

Affected by the pressure on the policy end in the early part of last week, the spot price of urea showed a certain degree of correction, but then the output was affected by the overhaul of urea enterprises, the demand of the downstream compound fertilizer plant continued to follow up, the factory received more orders in advance, and the spot price returned to the upward trend.

Spot ex-factory price of urea

Spot international price of urea

Although the export law inspection policy has been greatly reducedPokertablesnearmeIt takes time for legal inspection, but because the current export profits are not ideal, the space for export volume growth may be limited.

The operating rate may decline recently.

Urea operating rate

Recently, Qinghai Salt Lake, Hebei Tianyuan, Xinjiang Yanzhou Mining and other devices have resumed production, but there are also expected to be more parking enterprises, with 5 new parking enterprises parking and 4 parking enterprises resuming. At the same time, the output has decreased slightly following last week's device changes.

Urea yield

Corporate inventory is still falling.

Urea inventory

Short-term urea plants receive more orders in advance, rigid demand is still maintained for a period of time, production and marketing balance is dominant, and the inventory of some outsourced enterprises gradually decreases.

Recently, some large grain cargo sources in Yantai Port left Hong Kong, while some small particle cargo sources in Huanghua Port and Tianjin Port left Hong Kong. There was no obvious change in other ports, and the overall port inventory decreased narrowly.

Urea monthly inventory

Urea profit rebounded slightly

Fixed bed process cost and profit

Cost and profit of entrained flow process

Cost and profit of natural gas production process

Relaxation of export policy

Urea import and export volume

Agricultural demand is OK, industrial demand is declining.

Days of urea pre-harvest

Urea regained the upward trend, the downstream rigid demand continued to purchase, and the orders of urea enterprises increased steadily, but under the control of some enterprises, the number of mainstream orders of urea enterprises increased slightly.

The demand of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises is still good, the operating rate continues to be high, and the demand for urea continues to improve.

Compound fertilizer price

The production and marketing of compound fertilizer enterprises are booming, and the purchase of urea has increased significantly in the near future. the demand for local agricultural rice and corn fertilizer is superimposed, and the overall agricultural demand is good.

Operating rate and output of compound fertilizer

At present, the operating rate of compound fertilizer is still high, and the demand for urea is strong.

The production of compound fertilizer plant in southwest China fluctuates slightly, including three western lines in Guizhou, two towers in Jinxiang, 80% in Meifeng, one in Fuling, Chongqing in Sinochem, 70% in Meishan plant and 80% in Yuntianhua.

Inventory and demand of compound fertilizer

Melamine price

Furniture exports are better, driving plate demand higher than last year, melamine operating rate is more difficult to continue to decline, but the current low production profits are also difficult to support higher melamine operating rate.

Operation rate and output of melamine

Recently, the output of Shandong, Henan, Sichuan and Xinjiang has increased.

Cost and profit of melamine

Urea consumption

Upstream coal prices weaken again

Price of natural gas and urea

Price of thermal coal and urea

The upward trend of coal prices is weaker, inventories are still substantially higher than the same period last year, and the cost support of urea is still weak under the current spot prices.

Domestic market price of synthetic ammonia

Recently, due to maintenance or failure and other factors, supply has been tightened again, and in the later stage, there are still some plans to overhaul ammonia enterprises, local demand and port demand, and market prices continue to rise.

International market price of synthetic ammonia

Wide volatility of futures price

Urea futures price

Urea base difference

Urea monthly difference

Urea warehouse receipt

Warehouse receipts are lower than in the previous period.

Balance sheet

Urea balance sheet

Author: Kangjian

Certificate number: F03088041

Trading Enquiry Certificate number: Z0019583