luckyelfcasinonodepositbonuscodes2022| Crude oil price fluctuations have shifted downward, negative factors in the asphalt spot market have obvious impact

Zhuochuang Information analysts Geng Wen and Zhang Yanfei

[introduction] due to the superimposed cooling of high interest rates and renewed feedback of weak demand, oil prices fell continuously after breaking during the May Day holidayLuckyelfcasinonodepositbonuscodes2022The market. Although the oil price rebounded after the festival, due to the lack of drive, the overall price of crude oil maintained a narrow range of fluctuations, compared with the pre-festival, the center of gravity of crude oil prices significantly moved down. Crude oil as the main positive support of the pre-section spot price of asphalt, the support of asphalt is weakened after the festival, coupled with the slow recovery of rigid demand for asphalt, the negative factors in the spot market of asphalt have a great influence, and the spot price has dropped.

The spot price of asphalt fell after the festival. The market price is relatively flat.

After May Day, the spot price of asphalt decreased significantly. As of May 9, 2024, the average spot price of asphalt in the week after the holiday was 3906.Luckyelfcasinonodepositbonuscodes2022.29 yuan / ton, down 8% from the week before the festival.Luckyelfcasinonodepositbonuscodes2022.14 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.21%. The daily spot price of asphalt fell to 3903 yuan / ton, down 18.57 yuan / ton from April 30, or 0.47%.

From a comprehensive point of view, the pre-festival spot price of asphalt is mainly supported by the cost end. Although the demand side recovers slowly, due to the high fluctuation of crude oil price and solid cost end support, the monthly average price of asphalt rose significantly in April. However, during the May Day holiday, due to the decline in crude oil prices, asphalt cost-end support weakened, the spot market negative factors, the price fell.

The downward shift of the center of gravity of crude oil price fluctuations has a negative impact on the cost side.

First of all, from the cost side, due to the easing of the situation in the Middle East during the May Day period, the lack of supply disruptions worried by the market, the rapid return of geographical premiums, the obvious accumulation of crude oil inventories in the United States, and the weakening demand for gasoline, the fundamentals are a drag. During the May Day holiday, international oil prices fell continuously. After the holiday, with the release of market pessimism after the fall in oil prices, the market focused on the fundamentals. Although the unexpectedly destined US crude oil stocks provided obvious support for crude oil prices, the rise in oil prices lacked a boost and there were signs of stabilization at low levels.

From May 2 to May 8, the average price of US crude oil was 78.58 US dollars per barrel, down 3.61 US dollars per barrel or 4.4% from last week.Luckyelfcasinonodepositbonuscodes2022Brent crude averaged $83.34 a barrel, down $4.30 or 4.91% from last week. The fluctuation range of US crude oil prices has moved from 80-85 US dollars per barrel before the festival to 78-79 US dollars per barrel, and the center of gravity of crude oil prices has obviously shifted downward, showing a weak adjustment market as a whole.

The center of gravity of crude oil price fluctuation has shifted downward, the negative impact of the cost end on the spot price of asphalt, coupled with the fact that there are no obvious signs of improvement in the fundamentals of the asphalt market, the sentiment in the spot market is becoming more and more cautious.

The oversupply situation persists that the fundamentals of asphalt are partial to pressure the spot price.

Secondly, from the point of view of supply and demand, although the production profit of asphalt has improved due to the decrease in the cost of raw materials for asphalt production, the enthusiasm of local refineries to produce asphalt is still low because of the poor overall demand for asphalt. the start-up load rate of asphalt plant decreased 12.33% in the week after the festival compared with the same period last year. As far as asphalt production is concerned, the start-up load rate of asphalt plant is always low. There is support for the price of asphalt. However, the rigid demand for asphalt has recovered relatively slowly this year. Although the output of asphalt has decreased compared with that of last year, there is still no sign that the refinery inventory has been removed. As of May 8, the refinery storage ratio was about 32%, an increase of 2 percentage points over the previous festival and an increase of 8 percentage points compared with the same period last year. Coupled with the fact that the social inventory remains at a high level, the overall supply of asphalt is still abundant, and the oversupply of asphalt continues. The fundamentals are generally empty.

From the point of view of the comprehensive cost side and the supply and demand side, due to the flat asphalt market this year, the supply and demand side has always had a negative impact on the spot price of asphalt, which makes it relatively difficult to push up the spot price of asphalt in the second quarter of this year. However, under the support of the cost end, the spot price of asphalt did not fall significantly before the festival, basically showing a narrow range of fluctuations. The decline in the spot price of asphalt after the festival is mainly due to the weakening of the cost end support of asphalt after the fall of crude oil prices. under the continuous pressure of weak supply and demand, the spot price of asphalt continues to decline.

Due to the lack of drive in the crude oil market, in the short term, oil prices may maintain narrow fluctuations, coupled with the slow progress of road projects, the rigid demand for asphalt is not expected to improve significantly for the time being, and it is expected that the spot price of asphalt will remain weak and stable in the near future. the fluctuation range is relatively limited.