nodepositinstantwithdrawalgames| Zhuo Chuang Information: Optimism sprouts and analyzes whether there will be expected differences in the pig market from the perspective of weight

Li Jing, pig market analyst at Zhuochuang Information

[introduction] with the secondary fattening in the northern market, positive fatteningNodepositinstantwithdrawalgamesDriven by, optimism began to sprout, and the consistent optimistic expectation of the future led to the collective weight gain at the breeding end. From the point of view of body weight, the current average weight level is higher than that of last year, and there is a greater possibility of high shock from May to July. When slaughtering enterprises or passively acquire the supply of big pigs, the difference between the average weight purchased and the average weight out of the column is not large, but it will lead to a reduction in slaughtering volume in disguise. Pig prices continue to rise, poor expectations may exist, and expected highs or decreases.

The trading weight of live pigs is slightly higher than that of the same period last year, and the trend from May to July may be different from that of the same period last year.

From January to May in 2024, pig trading showed a downward trend and then an upward trend. According to the monitoring data of Zhuochuang Information, as of last week, the national average weight was 124.Nodepositinstantwithdrawalgames.13 kg, up 0.09% from last week, or 0.06 percentage points lower than last week. Among them, it continued to decline from January to February and rose continuously from March to May, with a trend similar to that of the same period in 2023, with a minimum of 121.92 kg in early February and a maximum of 124.12 kg in early January.

According to the feedback from the current weight data, the willingness of equivalent weight gain at the breeding end is strong, and the bullish mood of the superimposed market is high for pig prices from May to July. It is expected that in the future, as the pace of the farmed side slows down, pig trading from May to July may be heavy or maintain a high concussion trend, which may be different from the continuous decline in May-July 2023. However, according to the analysis of market demand, with the gradual entry of summer from May to July, the demand for fat pig white strips at the downstream consumer side decreases, the pressure driven by optimism in the future and the downstream rejection of fat pig white strips, and the contradiction between supply and demand from the point of view of body weight. will there be an expected difference in the pig market in the future?

The difference between the average weight of pigs purchased and the average weight of pigs decreased, and the slaughtering quantity decreased in disguise.

Pig overcapacity in 2023, there is active weight reduction and loss reduction action at the breeding end, while the pig disease at the end of the year leads to passive production reduction, and the breeding side driven by superimposed losses actively reduces production, driving the market to increase expectations for pig prices in 2024, and the willingness to press the fence to increase weight is strong. The downstream market has always been in a passive follow-up stage, the order follow-up is weak, butcher enterprises make deep losses, due to operational pressure to buy some low-priced pig supply, and the difference between the average acquisition weight and the average weight is narrowed. According to the monitoring data of Zhuochuang Information, as of May 16, the average weight of slaughtering enterprises was 123.93 kg, while that of aquaculture enterprises was 124.07 kg.

While the average weight of acquisitions has increased, the slaughter volume has declined as a whole compared with the same period last year. From February to April 2024, the slaughtering volume of Zhuangchuang information monitoring sample enterprises dropped by 18% and 20% compared with the same period last year. With the increase of pork supply of single pig carcass, the downstream market may face the dilemma that there is not a shortage of meat for pigs. And feedback to the butcher end, in the dilemma of rising prices, or continue to reduce production and slaughter. In the context of production reduction, in the future, the supply of big pigs will be more and less, or the price gap of fertilizer prices will be further narrowed or even upside down, and slaughtering enterprises may continue to choose big pigs for procurement, the potential impact is actually a further decline in slaughtering capacity.

The trend of average weight in different regions is in line with the seasonal law, and the growth rate slows down slightly.

From the seasonal index of the average weight sub-area of pig trading, the average weight level tends to show an upward trend from February to May, and the average weight trend in 2024 basically conforms to the seasonal law, but most of them are earlier than the seasonal rise and fall time point, and the weight gain time in 2024 is earlier than that in the past. Among them, the trading weight of Southwest, North China and East China is significantly lower than that of seasonality, while there is little difference between South China, Northeast China and Central China and seasonal index. In other words, as the average weight of live pigs in many places continues to rise to high levels, the rate of weight gain in South China, Northeast China and Central China has slowed down, while the average weight level in Southwest, North China and East China has a month-on-month decline.

The price difference of Fei bid is close to the level of the same period last year, and it is possible to turn negative in the future.

According to Zhuochuang Information Monitoring, the average price difference of fat standard pigs across the country on May 16 was 0.05 yuan / kg, 0.04 yuan / kg lower than that of the 9th and close to the level of the same period last year. In the future, as the temperature continues to rise, the intention of superimposed farming and the intention of pressing the fence coexist, and the market share of big pigs may still be on the high side in the future. with more supply and less demand of fattening pigs, the price difference of fat mark may turn negative in the future. However, considering that the current market is in an upward cycle brought about by capacity reduction, the slaughtering end lacks a voice, the proportion of pig acquisitions or decline is limited, and the fat bid spread is negative or maintained for a limited time.

Therefore, from the analysis of the average weight level, the future pig transactions are all heavy or remain high and fluctuating, the possibility of digestion of big pigs is not great, and slaughtering enterprises have the situation of passively purchasing the supply of big pigs, but with the increase of the proportion of big pigs, it restricts the slaughtering quantity in disguise, superimposes the decline of the digestibility of the market, or restricts the continuous rise of pig prices to a certain extent, so the upper limit of optimistic expectations for future rise may be affected by bearish expectations.