currentlottojackpot| The photovoltaic industry is expected to gradually get out of the trend of recovery. It is recommended to pay attention to three main lines

The agency pointed out that looking forward to 2024, maintain the previous global photovoltaic installation forecast 462GW, a year-on-year growth of about 15%. The photovoltaic industry is expected to gradually come out of the warming trend. With the price of the industrial chain gradually bottoming out, profits will be further differentiated, optimistic about some subdivisions of the industry, and it is recommended to pay attention to the three main lines.

Core logic

oneCurrentlottojackpot. There are signs of a new round of supply and demand improvement in the photovoltaic industry chain. According to the quotation of SMM on May 13th, the price of silicon material has been stable, the average price of densification material is maintained at 39.5 yuan / KG, while the average price of cauliflower material is maintained at 35 yuan / KG. At present, the price of silicon has fallen below the cash cost of most silicon enterprises and is in a state of overfall. On the other hand, the downstream customers tend to have the same understanding of the overfall of silicon material, and the willingness to sign the bill is expected to become stronger gradually, forming support on the demand side. At the same time, in the case of increasing losses of silicon enterprises, some silicon enterprises began to stop production and maintenance, silicon production is expected to decline in May, the supply side began to contract.

2. In 2023, the global photovoltaic installed demand maintained a good growth trend on the basis of the high growth in 2022. The global photovoltaic installed scale increased by 69.57% year on year to 390GW (CPIA caliber), and the module demand increased by 49% to 467GW (InfoLink caliber). However, the rapid decline in the price of the industrial chain generally makes the industrial chain generally face a certain degree of profit pressure (both from the reduction of profitability caused by the fall in product prices. It also comes from the inventory impairment pressure caused by the fall in product prices.

3.2023CurrentlottojackpotThe newly installed 216.88GW of photovoltaic in China increased by 148.1% over the same period last year, of which the new installed capacity of centralized photovoltaic exceeded 110GW, accounting for more than 50%. The new installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic was close to 100GW, industrial and commercial photovoltaic was more than 50GW, and household photovoltaic was more than 40GW. By the end of 2023, the cumulative installed scale of photovoltaic is 609.5GW. In terms of the industrial chain, in 2023, China's polysilicon output exceeded 1.43 million tons, an increase of 66.9 percent over the same period last year; wafer production reached 622GW, an increase of 67.5 percent over the same period last year; battery output reached 545GW, an increase of 64.9 percent over the same period last year; and component production reached 499GW, an increase of 69.3 percent over the same period last year. In 2023, the export volume of silicon wafers, batteries and components was 70.3GW, 39.3GW and 211.7GW, respectively, an increase of 93.6%, 65.5% and 37.9% respectively over the same period last year. Exports totaled US $48.48 billion, a slight decline, mainly due to price factors.

4. The bottom range of industry prices has reached, and there is less room for downside. Previously, due to the irrational price decline brought about by inventory accumulation, the price in the lower reaches of the industry was seriously depressed. After the space was squeezed, it is expected that the silicon price bottom has appeared, and the photovoltaic price has entered the bottom. Due to cost and electricity price factors, many manufacturers are in a state of loss, which further limits the downward space of prices. The price bottoms out or brings the release of terminal demand, benefiting from the back end of the main industrial chain and auxiliary materials. The price of polysilicon quickly comes to the bottom, which is conducive to the weakening of the industry game, and the final terminal demand is expected to be released, and the subsequent component production may continue to rise. At present, the price of 182 TOPCon components is still maintained at around 0.89 yuan /, the price of the upstream falls rapidly, and the battery chips and components enterprises that implement the low inventory strategy are expected to benefit. After the downstream demand is released, the auxiliary material link is also expected to benefit from the quantity increase logic.

5. Looking forward to 2024, maintain the previous global photovoltaic installation forecast 462GW, a year-on-year growth of about 15%. The photovoltaic industry is expected to gradually come out of the warming trend. The current problem of the industry is the oversupply risk caused by the substantial expansion of the industrial chain and the demand risk of new energy connected to the power grid under the background of power reform. The former leads to price deflation in the industrial chain, while the latter leads to a decline in the price of photovoltaic grid electricity, further suppressing demand. At present, there has been a turn for the better. On the one hand, the head enterprises still adhere to research and development, photovoltaic technology continues to progress, efficiency is further improved, costs are reduced, and the profit space of the industrial chain is broadened; on the other hand, the market with strong financing supervision and no profit-making effect is spontaneously adjusted, industry capital expenditure has dropped sharply, backward production capacity has been gradually cleared, and supply and demand have been optimized. In addition, the further upgrading and expansion of the power grid and the increase of photovoltaic access capacity are being strengthened, the above problems will be solved step by step, and the photovoltaic industry chain still has investment value.

Be good for individual stocks

Oriental Securities pointed out that with the price of the industrial chain gradually bottoming out, profits will be further differentiated, and it is suggested that we should pay attention to three main lines: 1) overseas enterprises account for a relatively high proportion of enterprises, and the certainty and price of export chain volume are better than those at home. It is recommended to pay attention to Ates, Jingke Energy, Zhenjiang shares (603507), Yueneng Technology. 2) in the downward trend of the industry, the pattern is good and the leading enterprises with strong profit stability. It is recommended to pay attention to Sunshine Power supply (300274), Follett (601865) and Foster (603806). 3) the sectors that are about to bottom out, such as silicon material, suggest to pay attention to Tongwei shares (600438).

Founder Securities pointed out that it is optimistic about the flexible battery links, auxiliary materials links that benefit from increased demand, inverter enterprises with obvious marginal improvement, new technology organizers, and integration leaders whose valuation has reached the bottom. It is suggested to pay attention to: 1) battery chip links with greater flexibility: Shijing Technology, Junda shares (002865), Jusheng Technology, etc.; 2) Auxiliary materials that benefit from increased demand: Witten Electric, Follett, Foster, psychic shares, Yubang Xincai, CITIC Bo, etc.; 3) Inverter companies with obvious marginal improvement: sunshine Power supply, Gudwei, Jinlang Technology (300763), Deye shares, Wemai shares, Yuneng Technology, etc. 4) new technology layouts: Ottaway, Mai Wei shares (300751), Oriental Risheng (300118), Jijia Weichuang (300724), High Test shares, etc.; 5) Integration leaders whose valuation has reached the bottom: Tongwei shares, Jingke Energy, Ates, Longji Green Energy, Trina Solar Energy, Jing O Technology.