cryptoplaytoearngameslist| The turning point in pig prices has emerged, and the subsequent gap between supply and demand has widened!

Pig price inflection point has appeared, pay attention to the upstream cycle of pig farming plate. Pig prices continue to rise. From last year's Q4 piglet price slump led to the current output began to shrink, to the decline in pig feed sales since April, and the recent continuous decline in body weight in the form of pig prices from weak to rising, pig supply contraction is becoming more and more intense. Pig prices have risen by 0% since May.Cryptoplaytoearngameslist99 yuan / kg to 16 yuan / kg, the periodic upward trend has been formed. At present, the price of pigs is rising rapidly, breaking 16 yuan / kg in many places. De-inventory + capacity overlap, pig prices rose rapidly in the second half of last week, the current quotation more than 16 yuan / kg, the industry returned to above the cost line. Looking forward to the follow-up, pre-production capacity de-transmission, superimposed demand bottom has passed, the subsequent gap between supply and demand is gradually expanding, pig prices are expected to pick up, May-October into the main rising waves.

With the current pig price of about 16 yuan / kg, the extent of capacity removal will be weakened according to past experience. However, in March, the Ministry of Agriculture, Steel Union, Yongyi and other caliber data were divergent, which is expected to be due to the large data samples of the Ministry of Agriculture, which can reflect the tendency of some small and medium-sized farmers to passively eliminate their production capacity. Therefore, the actual capacity may exceed market expectations. The Ministry of Agriculture was able to produce data that exceeded expectations in March, and the supply of pigs shrank in the second half of 24 years. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the stock of fertile sows at the end of March 24 was 3992, down 1.2% from February. Calculated from the highest stock of 43.9 million sows in 22 years, the current rate of elimination is more than 8%, and it is expected to reach more than 10% in the future, so the certainty of pig supply contraction in the second half of 24 years is high. Since the winter of 23 years, the Huang-Huai-Hai area is still seriously affected by non-plague, and the second fertility rate is more cautious at present.

In the winter of 23 years, the non-plague epidemic mainly occurred in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain. Shandong, Hebei, Anhui and other places were seriously affected by non-plague, resulting in damage to pig production. Affected by the non-plague epidemic, the enthusiasm of farmers in Shandong and other major secondary fattening areas is not high at present, and the number of pigs in the second fattening households is only about half of that in previous years. In the future, with the rising pig prices and the expected increase in consumption during the Mid-Autumn Day peak season, there is still room for improvement in the number of breeding households, which will form a strong support for pig prices. Frozen goods inventory short-term suppression of pig prices, 24Q3 pig prices upward probability is greater. At present, the inventory rate of frozen products is 14.56%, year-on-year-5.9pct, the sell-off of frozen meat, short-term suppression of pig prices. In the first half of 23 years, due to the optimistic judgment of the market in the second half of the year, dealers generally increased the inventory of frozen goods, but the pig price was low in the second half of 23 years, and the weak willingness of dealers to sell inventory led to the pressure on the warehouse.

This year, frozen goods stocks were forced to sell short-term suppressed pig prices, and it is expected that the impact of frozen goods stocks will basically disappear as frozen goods stocks fall to a low level in the future of 24Q3. The cycle is booming, with high prices lasting or exceeding expectations. At present, the industry has been losing money for more than one year, and the cumulative capacity removal is more than 10%, and it is still in the removal channel in April. Feed data have also been verified, and there has been an obvious year-on-year decline since the beginning of this year. At present, the extent of capacity reduction is OK, and this round of replenishment capacity is more cautious (the debt ratio of listed companies hit a new high after an ultra-long loss cycle, and the short-term behavior enthusiasm such as the slowdown of capital expenditure and the second child-bearing of small and medium-sized households is higher than that of supplementary sows). It is expected that the duration of the high average price is expected to be prolonged.

The cycle is higher or weaker than 22 years, but persistent or stronger. There are many similarities with the 22-year upward period, which also experienced the price decline in the peak season of the previous year and the accelerated elimination of production capacity, all rising in the second quarter, but the difference is that the elimination of production capacity is more thorough. and the strength of the short-term factors that affect the fluctuation of pig prices (second breeding, hurdling, etc.) have been weakened, which determines that the current cycle is sustained or stronger, but slightly inferior in height. The pig price high corresponding to this round of capacity contraction may be about 21-22 yuan / kg, while in the year of capacity gap, the height is more likely to be magnified by Eryu / hurdle, etc.